Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Peyton Manning at the Midway Point of the 2013 Season

I saw a few articles today that have Tom Brady as the MVP half-way through the season. Tom Brady. The same guy who is averaging 5.9 yards per attempt, is completing 55.7% of his passes so far with a 74.9 rating and a 9 to 6 TD:Int Ratio. That Tom Brady. Yes he's one of the Top 5 QBs ever to play the game. Yes he has a weak supporting cast with only a hobbled Rob Gronkowski as his lone reliable receiver. But to say he is the MVP just because his team happens to be 6-2 is simply to ignore facts. The fact is the Patriots lost to the Jets on the road and beat them by only 3 points despite New England's defense forcing 5 turnovers and the offense only putting up 13 points. They needed a last second FG to beat Buffalo. They had to rally from a two touchdown deficit AT HOME to beat Miami. Wanna know why New England is 6-2 through eight games? One man: Bill Belichick. He has re-tooled this defense into the ultimate bend-but-don't-break unit much like the ones the Pats fielded in their SB glory years. Despite injuries along the Front Seven and the loss of his two defensive stalwarts in Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, New England is still only surrendering 18.0 points per game, 6th in the league. Their run defense is anemic, 31st in the NFL, but so is their Passing game, 23rd. Both of their previous strengths of the past five seasons are now weaknesses. Yet like he always does, Belichick has adapted his team on the fly. The previously porous secondary and pass rush now rank 5th in pass defense and 4th in Sacks. The strong running game of 2012 continues to be a force, averaging 4.2 yards per carry despite teams' lack of respect for New England's passing game. Bill Belichick has brought his team back to the smash-mouth style of football it won 3 SBs in 4 years with. Physical bend-but-don't-break defense to go along with physical offense that makes just enough plays in the passing game to win. It's often ugly but it's effective. Rather than ask Brady to carry the load as he has done since 2007, Belichick now is trying to get him to revert to his game-manager past. Brady has struggled to adapt thus far. Some of it is his WR core, some of it is his re-shuffled O-Line. Yet more still is the fact that Brady is beginning to show signs of aging and dare I say it: DECLINE. His reads aren't as crisp, his deep pass is all but gone and perhaps most surprising of all, his legendary pocket presence is now a weakness. He looks timid in the pocket, unable to handle the chaos around him. He releases passes too quickly, almost expecting to get hit even when his protection is good. He clearly doesn't trust his offensive line yet and as a result the Patriots passing game, and offense as a whole, has suffered for it. Yet his team is still 6-2. There are a lot of reasons New England is atop the AFC East right now, but Brady and his play are more towards the bottom this year rather than being the driving force it was from 2007-2012.


Okay enough on my Tom Brady rant, now let's get back to the point of the article. One Mr. Peyton Williams Manning. The REAL 2013 NFL Most Valuable Player. I mean it's a formality at this point. Peyton Manning will win his 5th MVP Award, as well as his second  Offensive Player of the Year Award, at the 2014 NFL Honors Show in New York come February. The guy, at the ripe old age of 37, is off to the greatest start in NFL History for a Quarterback. His team is 7-1 and very nearly could've been 8-0 if the ball hadn't bounced off the hands of a defensive lineman and Ronnie Hillman hadn't let the ball slip through his fingers on 1st and Goal from the Indy 4 yard line. But that's an article for another time. Manning's numbers are out of this world. His 2919 yards passing through the first 8 weeks is an NFL Record while his 29 TD passes trail only Tom Brady's (puke) 2007 season for the most through 8 weeks. The Denver Broncos are the highest scoring team in NFL History through 8 games with 343 points, an average of 42.9 points per contest. Manning is so good this season that even when he struggles, 4 turnovers this past Sunday and 20 incompletions vs. Indianapolis two weeks ago, he can still put up 33 and 38 points on opponents. (Broncos scored 45 points vs. Washington on Sunday one of which was a defensive TD) Even when teams get the jump on the Broncos, Indy took a 33-14 4th Quarter lead while Washington took a 21-7 lead in the 3rd Quarter, Manning can still come roaring back. (19 unanswered points vs. Indy, 31 unanswered points vs. Washington) The fact that Manning can still throw for 740 yards and 7 TDs in spite of his 5 turnovers the past two weeks has to scare the living hell out of the rest of the NFL. If this is Manning "struggling" then their offense has to be clicking on all cylinders to have any hope of defeating him. The Broncos get a much needed bye next week to prepare for a 4 game stretch run where they will face 3 playoff teams, including games vs. and at Kansas City and the league's best defense. While this could prove to be the Broncos stiffest challenge yet, Kansas City (the NFL's only remaining unbeaten team) has yet to play a great offense aside from Dallas and has eeked out close wins over lesser opponents in recent weeks. The coming weeks will be a big test for both teams, Is Kansas City's defense for real, is Denver's offense truly indicative of the numbers they've accumulated, or are both teams less lethal than promised? We'll find out in three weeks.