Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Peyton Manning at the Midway Point of the 2013 Season

I saw a few articles today that have Tom Brady as the MVP half-way through the season. Tom Brady. The same guy who is averaging 5.9 yards per attempt, is completing 55.7% of his passes so far with a 74.9 rating and a 9 to 6 TD:Int Ratio. That Tom Brady. Yes he's one of the Top 5 QBs ever to play the game. Yes he has a weak supporting cast with only a hobbled Rob Gronkowski as his lone reliable receiver. But to say he is the MVP just because his team happens to be 6-2 is simply to ignore facts. The fact is the Patriots lost to the Jets on the road and beat them by only 3 points despite New England's defense forcing 5 turnovers and the offense only putting up 13 points. They needed a last second FG to beat Buffalo. They had to rally from a two touchdown deficit AT HOME to beat Miami. Wanna know why New England is 6-2 through eight games? One man: Bill Belichick. He has re-tooled this defense into the ultimate bend-but-don't-break unit much like the ones the Pats fielded in their SB glory years. Despite injuries along the Front Seven and the loss of his two defensive stalwarts in Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, New England is still only surrendering 18.0 points per game, 6th in the league. Their run defense is anemic, 31st in the NFL, but so is their Passing game, 23rd. Both of their previous strengths of the past five seasons are now weaknesses. Yet like he always does, Belichick has adapted his team on the fly. The previously porous secondary and pass rush now rank 5th in pass defense and 4th in Sacks. The strong running game of 2012 continues to be a force, averaging 4.2 yards per carry despite teams' lack of respect for New England's passing game. Bill Belichick has brought his team back to the smash-mouth style of football it won 3 SBs in 4 years with. Physical bend-but-don't-break defense to go along with physical offense that makes just enough plays in the passing game to win. It's often ugly but it's effective. Rather than ask Brady to carry the load as he has done since 2007, Belichick now is trying to get him to revert to his game-manager past. Brady has struggled to adapt thus far. Some of it is his WR core, some of it is his re-shuffled O-Line. Yet more still is the fact that Brady is beginning to show signs of aging and dare I say it: DECLINE. His reads aren't as crisp, his deep pass is all but gone and perhaps most surprising of all, his legendary pocket presence is now a weakness. He looks timid in the pocket, unable to handle the chaos around him. He releases passes too quickly, almost expecting to get hit even when his protection is good. He clearly doesn't trust his offensive line yet and as a result the Patriots passing game, and offense as a whole, has suffered for it. Yet his team is still 6-2. There are a lot of reasons New England is atop the AFC East right now, but Brady and his play are more towards the bottom this year rather than being the driving force it was from 2007-2012.


Okay enough on my Tom Brady rant, now let's get back to the point of the article. One Mr. Peyton Williams Manning. The REAL 2013 NFL Most Valuable Player. I mean it's a formality at this point. Peyton Manning will win his 5th MVP Award, as well as his second  Offensive Player of the Year Award, at the 2014 NFL Honors Show in New York come February. The guy, at the ripe old age of 37, is off to the greatest start in NFL History for a Quarterback. His team is 7-1 and very nearly could've been 8-0 if the ball hadn't bounced off the hands of a defensive lineman and Ronnie Hillman hadn't let the ball slip through his fingers on 1st and Goal from the Indy 4 yard line. But that's an article for another time. Manning's numbers are out of this world. His 2919 yards passing through the first 8 weeks is an NFL Record while his 29 TD passes trail only Tom Brady's (puke) 2007 season for the most through 8 weeks. The Denver Broncos are the highest scoring team in NFL History through 8 games with 343 points, an average of 42.9 points per contest. Manning is so good this season that even when he struggles, 4 turnovers this past Sunday and 20 incompletions vs. Indianapolis two weeks ago, he can still put up 33 and 38 points on opponents. (Broncos scored 45 points vs. Washington on Sunday one of which was a defensive TD) Even when teams get the jump on the Broncos, Indy took a 33-14 4th Quarter lead while Washington took a 21-7 lead in the 3rd Quarter, Manning can still come roaring back. (19 unanswered points vs. Indy, 31 unanswered points vs. Washington) The fact that Manning can still throw for 740 yards and 7 TDs in spite of his 5 turnovers the past two weeks has to scare the living hell out of the rest of the NFL. If this is Manning "struggling" then their offense has to be clicking on all cylinders to have any hope of defeating him. The Broncos get a much needed bye next week to prepare for a 4 game stretch run where they will face 3 playoff teams, including games vs. and at Kansas City and the league's best defense. While this could prove to be the Broncos stiffest challenge yet, Kansas City (the NFL's only remaining unbeaten team) has yet to play a great offense aside from Dallas and has eeked out close wins over lesser opponents in recent weeks. The coming weeks will be a big test for both teams, Is Kansas City's defense for real, is Denver's offense truly indicative of the numbers they've accumulated, or are both teams less lethal than promised? We'll find out in three weeks. 



Monday, September 16, 2013

2013: The Year of the G.O.A.T.

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By: William Clogston 
Monday, September 16, 2013 

Through the first two weeks of the 2013 season, hell throughout the whole 2nd Half of the season-opener, Peyton Manning has looked unstoppable. Yes that Peyton Manning. The one everyone doubted would ever return to the form that made him the NFL's first and ONLY 4 Time-MVP. The one that saw him carry some pretty mediocre and often heavily-injured Colts teams to 12, 13, 14 win seasons every year. It's hard to remember it after his incredible comeback last season, but there was talk of whether or not Peyton Manning should retire for the sake of his post-football future. It was a legitimate question. Having just recently fathered twins, Manning now had other more important priorities in life aside from football. Surely he wanted to be there for his kids, just as his own father Archie had always been there for him. I can admit that as a fan, I had prepared myself for his retirement at one point. Then the video of him working out at Duke gave me hope and then the whole Manning vs. Luck debate really went into high gear. I remember calling into Bo Mattingly's show towards the end of the regular season in 2011. They were discussing whether or not the Colts should part ways with Manning and Mattingly had basically settled on the premise that they HAD TO.
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I offered the option of possibly releasing Manning before resigning him to a more cap-friendly deal, something I'm sure Manning would've at least entertained. I remember being laughed off, basically told I was nuts simply because there was no guarantee Manning would even be healthy enough to take a hit. And that was the true crux of the whole Manning leaving Indy saga. There was so much uncertainty regarding his health that you didn't really know what to expect.
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Shortly after his release, my best friend Blake and I daydreamed about the possibility of Peyton joining his favorite team, the San Francisco 49ers and the fact that both of us might wind up rooting for the same team. It looked like a great scenario. San Francisco had lost in the NFC Championship Game the year before and had one of the league's best running attacks and O-Lines, a good young receiving core, and quite possibly the best Defense in football. It would certainly be a great place for Manning, as even if he wasn't fully healthy, the team around him wouldn't need him to do everything. Manning, as we all know, signed with the first team he visited, the Denver Broncos. 
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I wasn't thrilled with the choice of Denver but was at least encouraged. They had the League's best running game the year before, a solid young defense led by Von Miller and quite possibly the best LT in football in Ryan Clady. I was concerned about how Denver's receivers would transition from such a simple offensive scheme with Tim Tebow to Manning complex no-huddle attack. Prior to the season I felt that Denver would likely finish 10-6 with a division title in year one simply because it might take time for Manning and his new receivers to really gel, plus the last time he missed significant action in 2008, it took him about 7 games to round into form. Without going into too detailed of a recap, Manning exceeded all expectations last season, even my own. Despite having a noticeably weaker arm and less velocity on his throws, Manning's pre-snap reads, quick release, precise anticipation and outstanding ball placement to his receivers were better than ever. 
url.jpg He was 2nd only to Aaron Rodgers in Passer Rating with a staggering 105.8 Passer Rating to go along 4659 yards, that's more than Aaron Rodgers had in his MVP season in 2011, and tossed 37 TDs, that's more TDs than Tom Brady threw in his MVP season in 2010, while completing a league-leading 68.6% of his passes. The season played out like I'd thought only better. The Broncos started off slowly at 2-3 but Manning was getting healthier by the week.

After coming back from a 24 point deficit to beat San Diego, during a second half where Manning went 13/14 (92.9%) for 167 yards and 3 touchdowns, the Broncos won their next 10 games and managed to capture home field advantage. 
Sadly, the SB journey a year and a half after returning from neck surgery was not to be thanks to Jacoby Jones, Rahim Moore and Corey Graham as Denver lost to the eventual SB Champion Baltimore Ravens 38-35 in Double Overtime. It was the 1st postseason loss of Manning's career to Baltimore and his 11th overall which tied him with Brett Favre for the most in NFL History. After such unexpected success in his first season with Denver, Manning now entered the 2013 season with perhaps the highest set of expectations in his entire career. In 2013, nothing less than a SB Championship will be good enough for Denver this year. Having added two new receivers in the off-season in the slot-machine Wes Welker, he of the 672 catches the past 6 seasons, and the emergence of 3rd year TE, former Portland state hoopster Julius Thomas, there was great intrigue surrounding how Denver's offense would perform with the new more up-tempo no-huddle being implemented. 
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Through the 1st 2 weeks of the 2013 season, this Denver Broncos offense has the potential to as good as any in NFL History. Manning began the season with a game for the ages, throwing for 462 yards and an NFL-Record tying 7 touchdown passes in a 49-27 victory over the defending champion Ravens. Manning followed that performance with a 41-23 victory over Peyton's younger brother Eli Manning and the New York Giants. While his numbers weren't nearly as spectacular, 307 yards 2 touchdowns, and the offense not nearly as explosive, only one pass play over 20 yards, the running game emerged as a threat with Knowshon Moreno providing 93 yards on the ground and two scores. In fact, for the most part Manning wasn't overly spectacular against New York. He simply took what the Giants defense gave him all game with brutal effectiveness. After throwing for 200 yards in the 1st Half, Manning pounded away with the running game against the Giants base nickel defense.
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With the defense on their heels, Manning was superbly accurate in the 2nd half, going 12/14 (85.7%) for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. In fact, in the 2nd half through two games, Manning is 28/37 (75.7%) for 409 yards and 7 touchdown passes without an interception, good for a Passer Rating of 150.8. The Broncos have outscored the past two SB Champions 35-10 and 31-14 in the 2nd Half. Peyton Manning is the first quarterback in NFL History to throw for 9 touchdowns without an interception through two games. The Broncos offense is averaging 45 points a game, by far the best in the NFL. And yet, the running game is only 19th at 87 yards per game and the defense is lacking its best two players in Von Miller and Champ Bailey. This Broncos team is battered yet has emerged at 2-0 with convincing wins over conference powers. I've seen this before, a battered team winning game after game, Manning did it with the Colts all the time. Only this team is better than any he has played on since 2005. Peyton Manning is finally healthy and now, two years removed from talk of potential retirement and hand wringing over his condition, he is off to the best start by a QB in NFL History. This gets lost in the media simply because Peyton is always great, but I don't think the outside world truly understands just how close Peyton Manning was to the end.


I was unsure how he'd perform in Denver, unsure how he'd adapt to change after being a creature of habit in the comfort of Indianapolis. As I said before, a small part of me was prepared for him to retire. I'd have been okay with it, he would a 1st Ballot Hall of Famer and probably be considered one of the Top 5 greatest Quarterbacks in NFL History. But deep down I knew if it had ended after the 2011 season, there'd have always been the question of what might've been. I was afraid Peyton would be the Gale Sayers of QBs, potentially the best ever just didn't play long enough or win enough SBs to garner serious consideration. But in the back of my mind, I hoped the Quarterback I'd watched and rooted for 8 years religiously, would not only return to form but come back with a vengeance, that'd he return better than ever, silence his critics and claim the title of the Greatest Quarterback Ever to Play the Game before riding off into the sunset. after dominating the giants in East Rutherford, New Jersey this past Sunday with only a fairly routine performance, Peyton looks as determined as I've ever seen him to get back to MetLife Stadium in February. Now, nearly two years and a new season later, Manning is off to the best start of his career, has his team off to a dominant 2-0 start and with so many young players making plays, looks to be paired with a legitimate SB contender at last. Making my dream, baby steps closer to reality.